Scottish independence is on the cards again and I’ve just published my view on the issue in The National. You may be wondering why this divisive issue has emerged so soon after the last referendum and this can be explained in one word: BREXIT; a major change to the UK that a majority of Scots voted against.
The original title of my article in The National was: Will I be shot down in flames (again) for questioning independence? The worthy editors at the paper changed the word “independence” into “indy” which I find rather grating, but hey-ho; mustn’t grumble.
Here’s the article:
During the 2014 referendum I was against independence but now I’m in the unclaimed centre ground, the no-man’s land, the “Don’t Knows”. I’m open to persuasion.
I could have been a Yes voter first time round but two things put me off: Alex Salmond’s bulldozing through of Donald Trump’s application to destroy a Site of Special Scientific Interest, to create a golf course near Aberdeen; and the fact that my questions about Scottish independence were met with abuse on social media.
For many years I worked on EU-funded projects in Central and Eastern Europe and in 2006 I spent a frantic month helping the Romanian government (successfully) negotiate the most difficult part of EU-accession: the chapter on Justice and Home Affairs. I naively thought this experience would be of interest to Yes supporters, but whenever I asked how Scotland would re-join the EU I got shot down in flames (this comment I wrote in Huffington Post caused outrage on social networks).
New Questions
This time round Brexit and the shambolic way the British government have managed the pandemic has pushed me back into the centre.
But my questions are different now: how will Nicola Sturgeon handle Donald Trump in the future; and can Scotland show genuine leadership regarding climate change?
Although the SNP distanced themselves from Trump after his 2016 presidential election victory, they are currently faced with an embarrassing question: will the Scottish Government seek an Unexplained Wealth Order (UWO)? Where did he get the cash to buy two Scottish golf courses? If they acted on this issue, the SNP would show that they don’t tolerate rich crooks.
My biggest concern is the climate emergency which is more serious than Brexit and the Covid 19 pandemic combined. If the SNP could show any real leadership on the issue I would be their biggest fan. But the Scottish government just follow the tired old formula used by Boris Johnson: recognise the problem, set up commissions, agree targets, fund small pilot projects – kick the issue along the road, claim success and, above all, do nothing to upset the status quo.
The Scottish government’s web page on climate change claims it is, “winning international respect for our ambition and leadership on climate change. Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions have already been reduced by almost half from the 1990 baseline.”
But the latest report by the Climate Change Committee says two thirds of these reductions in carbon emissions were due to closing a few coal-fired power stations, and: “Emissions from all other sectors outside of electricity generation have fallen by just 14%.”
The real elephant in the room is Big Oil. As with Trump, it comes down to raw political courage: will the SNP have the guts to stand up to the oil companies and – equally difficult – tell the people of Scotland that we all need to start making plans for a carbon-free future?
Writing in The National, Mark Ruskell says New Zealand recently ended new offshore oil and gas exploration and the government was rewarded at the polls: “Jacinda Ardern won a landslide and her Green Party allies increased their share of the vote while climate-ambivalent parties saw their vote share decrease.”
Perhaps the Scottish government could be the first European country that tells its people “Enough! No more oil! No more plastic! No more pollution! On your bikes!” That sort of leadership would inspire the continent and even big business would have to comply.
The one good thing about Covid 19 is that it has shown what governments can do – close down whole economies – if they feel the problem is serious enough. Whichever European leader has the guts to make this call will instantly become a leader in the new green economic revolution.
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What do you think about Scottish independence? I’d love to know, even if you live on the other side of the world. Please leave a comment below.
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Hi— from across the pond!
I was visiting Scotland; Summer, 2014 and I learned about the upcoming vote as I was staying practically across the street from Parliament.
It was unbelievably exciting to consider the magnitude of the situation— as exciting as a moment in time that it was (wall to wall tourists in Parliament), coming from across the pond, I didn’t understand enough about the situation to have a strong feeling.
This has changed now. And I appreciate the point made about hard borders. But to me— after what I am seeing in America and Britain, ew. No way.
Hard borders are a small price to pay for freedom. Work it out in Brussels!!! It would be absolutely inspirational and very similar to the Sovereignty movements that are happening with Native Americans all over America right now.
For an American like myself, it makes my heart HURT to hear that Westminster grants permissions to Scotland. Scotland may as well say they need the Mayor of London’s permission —because it makes the same illogical sense.
It’s been lovely chiming in.
Namaste
I understand, Rupert, and I as a committed supporter of Independence to some extent agree with the issues you raise, for instance on Environmental issues, but although the SNP Government has done much on this with encouragement for instance of investment in tidal energy projects, without full powers of Independence their hands to a great extent are tied.
And there lies the more immediate concern; with the Internal Market Bill Westminster is seeking to take control of investment projects in Scotland and to bypass the Scottish Government. There is already talk in Westminster of seeking ways to reduce Barnett payments to Scotland. It is only with Independence that we shall avoid these and other likely threats which we don’t yet know of and then we in Scotland will be able to give full attention to the issues you raise.
Other people are concerned for instance about currency or pensions or borders; these concerns can be addressed positively but in the end personally I think there has to be belief that Scotland with its natural assets, well educated population, strong financial centres, industries of the future like life science and , of course, green energy, and proven good Government can be a successful independent country.
I spent 30 years of my working life in different countries in Europe among them Austria and Belgium. I returned 20 years ago to Scotland and believe heart and head that Scotland can join them as a good neighbourly successful independent country. I very much hope that you can also share that belief.
Hi Rupert – interesting article covering a lot of ground, each of your points worthy of a more lengthy response. I’ll try and be brief in responding to a few of them, pretty much in the order they appear in your article. I am sorry you were ‘shot down in flames’ at an earlier point in the journey ‘towards independence’. I think the Yes movement is a pretty broad kirk and there is room for many different views within a broad commitment to social democracy. I wouldn’t pay to much heed to one or even several individuals’ angry responses to your questions – or even to mine. Please keep asking your questions and keep an open mind. I think Alex Salmond got it wrong on Trump – I don’t think he recognised the nature of the beast and the danger he would become to the environment – both locally in Scotland and globally. He got that call wrong – he wouldn’t reach the same judgement today. And I think you will see a move from the Scottish Government on an Unexplained Wealth Order, at least as it might apply to Turnberry. On re-joining the EU – I believe you would get a very different reaction today from the Scottish Government and from the SNP. People like Phillipa Whitford MP – SNP lead on Health and on European Issues are deeply immersed in the issues around EU-accession as they would affect an independent Scotland, and there is a significant level of cross-over between Yes supporters and the European Movement in Scotland, which puts a lot of energy into understanding the politics and the technicalities of EU accession for Scotland as it finds itself today. I think there is now a very open and welcoming stance from the SNP leadership for people with experience and passion on the issue. I certainly have found that to be the case. Probably even more significantly, I think it is a bit harsh to accuse the SNP of ‘kicking the (climate) issue along the road’ like Boris Johnson. First off – they don’t control all the policy or financial levers that would allow Scotland to make as rapid progress on addressing climate change as the Scottish Government would like. Second – many people, especially among Scotland’s aging population are ‘conservative’ with a small ‘c’. They are nervous about (too) rapid change, especially if it means moving too radically away from what happens ‘in the UK’.
While the SNP Government tries to take the majority of Scots on the journey to a new fairer, greener, healthier independent Scotland, with only the Scottish Greens for company, it has to swim hard against the prevailing currents in most of our other political parties and almost all of our mainstream media. That’s not easy! On so many things it wants to do to change Scotland for the better it is left standing alone, except for the Greens, against the UK political establishment and the Unionist media (with the proud exception of the National). I wouldn’t knock all the work done by the Citizens Assembly, the Growth Commission, the Social Justice and Fairness Commission and many others to generate policies and programmes for a Scotland free to make bolder choices than it can now. There will certainly be more room for radical ideas and more rapid change in an independent Scotland than there ever will be in a UK under Johnson – racing to the past and to the bottom on so many issues. (My personal favourite with be much faster and more ambitious reform of land ownership and taxation). Your right of course that Covid has shown us what Governments can do when they really want to. For me, its pretty obvious which Government in these islands has made the right call most frequently and who would have made an even better job of managing the pandemic as it impacts on Scottish society if it had it’s own borrowing powers. Sorry – this is a bit more than just comment length!
Dear Kenny, thank you so much for your thoughtful and detailed reply. I agree with all your points and particularly appreciate your tone: this is exactly the kind of feedback/dialogue I was hoping to have last time round.
When working in Eastern Europe I remember folk who’d gone to study/work in the west, and when they came back with lots of useful training or experience they’d not only be ignored by those who had remained but also resented for the “good time” they’d presumably had when abroad. When I came back to Scotland after working for the EU, UN, etc I felt something of this — not only was my EU experience of no interest to anyone debating the referendum but recruiters seemed unable to evaluate foreign experience.
My criticism of the SNP’s environmental policy applies to most governments of the world: there is a meekness that comes from fear of Big Business, the media and conservative opponents — all of which is quite understandable. That’s why I refer to the need for a leader — somewhere, anywhere in the world — to stand up and say “enough is enough”. We need to stop right now. No more compromises.” If SNP, for example, had the guts to do this it would create a media sensation/outrage but it would also make them into continental leaders on the issue.
I am equally critical of the UK Green Party which has diffused its ecological message by watering it down with the complexities of social justice; thus dissipating their focus. They’ve also painted themselves into a political corner by showing themselves to be on the left; thus alienating much of the population. Why not focus only on environmental issues and work hard to find common ground with the other parties? Then the issues themselves could be taken on board by whoever is in power. In Austria the greens are in a leadership coalition with the conservatives. Why not?
I can see how the case for Scottish independence has been strengthened by Brexit. However, would it not have been easier to implement Scottish independence had Britain not already left the EU – at least not under the current ‘hard’ Brexit deal? Had Scotland, say, gone independent while the UK was still in the EU and somehow was able to remain in the EU, or was allowed to rejoin it quickly, then presumably the border between Scotland and England could remain ‘frictionless’. However, if Scotland were to leave the UK today, again while remaining in or quickly rejoining the EU, then the result would surely be a hard border between the two countries involving customs declarations and passport controls, etc. (The equivalent fudge of a border in the Irish Sea would not exist.).
A very good point…
Very good article. I would have liked you to develop some of the arguments a little bit further and felt it ended a bit abruptly. But otherwise it was good to learn about UWO as well as SNP’s record on climate change.
Brexit is definitely a game changer. I voted No last time and immediately regretted it after Cameron reneged on all his promises a week later. But I was also put off by the fanaticism in the Indy ranks and the unwillingness to openly debate the thornier questions which you put across well. And then there was the problem of Alex Salmond, He always came across to me, despite his brilliance as a speaker and debater, as a bit of a sleazeball which I’m sorry to say seems to have proved to be correct.
In terms of the “abrupt ending” of my article — well spotted; it happened as I was writing it for a (pro independence) newspaper and 600 words was my max. It was a good thing too as I’d have written thousands of words otherwise.
I share many of your thoughts dear Rupert but now there is a new leader in the white House the goal posts may well change depending on the Biden view of global warming and how if at all the US will address this real problem. With regard to Scotland I think is inevitable that it will break away from the rest of the UK and will become independent and there seems to be a large wish for this among’st Scots I note who would rather be akin to the EU. The lack of support from London over many years has left a sour taste on many Scots. Liquid gold being petrol and oil in the Scottish oil fields has and will I feel be reduced in years ahead as the World turns to cleaner ways of living, but I do agree with you that if the SNP and also other Scottish parties pledged to take swift and firm action to reduce greenhouse gasses then this would be a clear winner and not only for the people of Scotland health-wise but for the fact it would be noted and followed by the UK for certain and other Countries as well.
I spent a bit of time responding to your interesting article Rupert and thought I had submitted my comments but I don’t see them here. Is there anything I should have done except press the submit comment button? By the way – if you want really up to date informed comment on Scotland, Spain, EU accession issue from Scottish and European experts you should check out the European Movement in Scotland website. They have had a number of recent panel discussions which cover these issues in depth.
Thanks again Kenny, you are quite right to complain about my slow response/approval of comments. I need to approve each one as I get so much spam — and I can be a bit slow (as my teachers used to say). I’d like to check out the European Movement, and I’m sure I wrote about them many years ago. All the best, Rupert
Good points made. Appreciate the references. I too was on the fence in 2014 but am now firmly in the yes camp. Why? Because brexit took us out of Europe against our will. Simple.
My question to Nicola/SNP is another one: what assurances can they give that the EU woukd allow Scotland entry back in to the EU. With Spain firmly against referendums for Catalonia and Basque regions, why would they not veto Scotland’s entry?
Being ‘of the left’, I had noticed the democratic deficit long before Brexit. I read your article this morning and I would just say that you have many asks of our devolved Scottish government that will not be possible until we are truly independent, that is when Scotland has its own central bank and currency and it taxes its citizens in that currency.
It is impossible to know the minds of the EU political leadership of the future, or even the shape of the EU post-Covid, that has been amply demonstrated. There can be no guarantees, you either believe that people who live in Scotland should run Scotland or you don’t. I am more than happy to discuss this more in a Zoom call. @IndyAnatomist
Thanks for this comment Kairin…
In response to your point about Spain vetoing our EU membership: they surely would. I would advocate the joining of the EEA which gives all the benefits of EU membership but without the voice/vote/membership of the European Council governing body.
Hi Rupert,
Just to let you know if Scotland becomes independent and it goes ‘tits up’ your always welcome in Gods own County.
Did you know we’ve just had the coldest January for 10 years and the Beast from the East its on its way.
Whats so bad about global warming, beats cooling anyday.
Keep well
John